SL Predictions 2010 Recap, SL Predictions For 2011


This time last year I posted a blog post predicting things that may happen during 2010 in Second Life. Here are the results from the predictions I made in 2009 for 2010. I have now added my SL predictions for 2011 and will be adding to the list in the coming days/weeks.

SL Predictions 2010 Recap Check

  • Second Life Viewer 2.0 launch – Launched in early 2010 successfully
  • Teen Integration (Merge of grids) – Due to happen before, on or after 31st December 2010
  • Mesh-imports/exporting – In beta period currently
  • SL Concurrency to reach 100k milestone – Never reached this milestone this year
  • More alternative viewers & may take over – Increase throughout 2010
  • Second Life Enterprise – Linden Lab has discontinued the Second Life Enterprise development program
  • Linden Lab to have a emerald team – Now known as Phoenix team
  • Linden Lab may cap Inventory Limits – Not sure on this one
  • OpenSim grows and more 3rd party viewers – Success and increase of residents switching
  • SL will become more social (facebook, twitter, web etc) – Did not work out (M Linden) and Avatars United closed down
  • Cheaper homesteads and new additional fees for services – Increase pricing in 2011
  • More news press from RL sources and SL sources – Very balanced during 2010
  • Official SL Shadows in viewer – Shadows can be enabled in many viewers
  • New creation tools – In Viewer 2 and Mesh viewer
  • More Linden Lab HQ’s around the world – Mostly stayed the same amount
  • Windows 7 compatibility support for SL – Success
  • Relay for Life 2010 will hopefully raise more than $500, 000 – Total raised: US$222,804
  • Total SL registered accounts will exceed 20 million Success

SL Predictions 2011

  • A new Linden Lab CEO
  • Mesh will be officially launched
  • Teens introduced to the Main Grid
  • Major TPVs will switch over to using Viewer 2 based code
  • Educational organizations leave SL cause of land increased prices
  • More residents moving to OpenSim grids etc
  • SL concurrency to reach 100, 000 users online
  • LL ends Viewer 1.23 support
  • LL starts hiring former employees and more new employees
  • More Linden Lab press news & new projects
  • The SL Economy will hopefully grow stronger

What are your SL predictions for 2011 ?

11 thoughts on “SL Predictions 2010 Recap, SL Predictions For 2011

  1. As for the prediction of “First 2.x based TPVs will appear and will grow during the course of 2011” that is already happening, as the Kirsten S20 Viewer is a 2.x based viewer and I’ve been using it since spring of 2010. Other predictions seem to be pretty much spot on with what I expect to happen.

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  2. Regarding the “First 2.x based TPVs will appear and will grow during the course of 2011” prediction, I’m afraid that one has somewhat already happened. Kirsten’s viewer has been using a 2.x codebase for quite some time, and the Lindens have been saying they will cut off 1.23-based viewer logins soon. A more accurate prediction would be “More 2.x based TPVs will appear and grow during 2011 after LL officially kills 1.23 TPVs”. A corollary prediction of “This will result in 2.x TPVs overtaking the official viewer as they will implement UI changes that will actually improve the user experience” can be made too.

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  3. I agree with your predictions, except Kirstens Viewer has been based on Viewer 2 for quite some time, a version that changed the way that the sidebar worked and added shadows was around in March: http://www.kirstensviewer.com/Blog?year=2010&month=3

    Katherine Berry ran Kitty Viewer based on Viewer 2 for a while as well. I’m sure there have been others. Kirstens is the only one I’m aware of having been in the Linden Lab Third Party Viewer Directory though.

    If you changed your prediction to be that the major TPVs will switch over to using Viewer 2 based code, then I’d agree with you (as they’ve both announced this already).

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  4. Tateru Nino’s charts of Linden Lab’s own number indicate a continual decline is median concurrency, now down below 50,000 as I read it. Peak login concurrency over the last 14 days seems to be around 72,000. Both of those numbers are down approximately 20,000 from January 2009 (look here).

    Interestingly enough, the Lab ceased publishing total logins in October. The last available figures show it somewhat less than 1,000,000 over the preceding 30 days. Recall that “one login of at least an hour’s duration, some time in the last 30 days” once was their definition of an “active user”, and one wonders what they might be hiding now.

    In the event: If the number of “active users” bears any relation to concurrency (and I believe the charts indicate that it does), then even a on-time, record-setting instantaneous peak of 100,000 concurrent would need, as its foundation, an average of 1.43 million “active”. [1,000,000/70,000 = ~14.3] Until that data was withdrawn from independent scrutiny, that trend was down, not up.

    In short, I’m afraid that a prediction of 1,000,000 concurrent users any time in SL’s foreseeable future is, at best, wishful… along the lines of “The SL Economy will hopefully grow stronger.”

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  5. “LL starts hiring former employees and more new employees”
    I’d like to see the prediction “SL starts attracting back former residents”, but I’m not predicting that.

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  6. @Lalo Telling: Thanks for sharing those SL statistics. I will be following this closely next year. 🙂

    @Kiwini Oe: Yeah, true that would be ideal if that happened next year.

    Thanks for the feedback and suggestions. Most helpful! 🙂

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  7. My predictions for 2011:

    the new CEO will associate Linden Lab with another important company, it could be a company that focus on 3D, or a Social Network company, or something related. it may be EA games.

    rumors that Viewer 3 is in the works.

    some members of the Phoenix TPV are going to quit, because they don’t want to work on a Viewer 2 based viewer. more members are hired by Phoenix.

    using Second Life through a web browser becomes more common, specially for the people who cant install anything on the computer they are using, web second life is going to have problems at first, but at the end of the year, its going to be quite stable.

    it would be almost impossible to crash using viewer 2.

    Linden Lab uses HyperGrid technology to connect with OpenSim, after some arrangements are made. Linden Lab may buy OpenSim.

    at the first quarter of the year, Linden Lab is going to be strongly attacked by people who miss Viewer 1, by the middle of the year, they will resign.

    user names get hidden, to see them you have to enable them on preferences as technical data, the last name of the users gets merged with the first name, as Display Name: “Daniel Voyager”, last names get erased from Linden Lab databases.

    we will start to see new users with their real life names as their Display Name. they will usually register with something strange as the user name, probably their email address they are used to, like if their email is daniel_123 they are going to use the same as user name.

    Marketplace gets more integrated with the viewer, possibly as a new tab in the search window, it may replace the Classifieds tab.

    Linden Lab tries to create a mass media network in Second Life.

    people will start replacing their Linden bodies with mesh ones, Linden bodies are going to be forgotten, like the Linden skin. we will see amazing places and objects made of mesh.

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